Investing in Exponential Growth
Eric Brynjolfsson’s and Andrew McAfee’s book The Second Machine Age was the spark that initiated my search for exponential growth.
The authors suggest that the First Machine Age was The Industrial Revolution which introduced machines that were driven by steam and electricity to dramatically extended the muscle capabilities of humans.
The authors claim that the Second Machine Age has become the Digital Revolution. The use of digital technologies is extending the mental capabilities of humans. The underlying reason for this extension is that digital technologies can access and analyze larger amounts of data – faster – than can humans.
Select here for an illustration of how Google used Artificial Intelligence (AI) or Machine Learning to achieve absolute supremacy in the mentally challenging ancient game of Go.
However, from an investor’s perspective, the Digital Revolution’s main impact is – and will continue to be – in the world of business. And, that impact is occurring faster and more pervasively than many investors realize.
Consider the following:
Facebook, launched in 2004, is the world’s most popular media owner and creates no content.
YouTube, launched in 2005, uploads more than 400 hours of videos every minute and creates none of it.
Airbnb, launched in 2008, is the world’s largest accommodation provider and owns no real estate.
Uber, launched in 2009, is the world’s largest taxi company and owns no vehicles.
As a final illustration of the speed and pervasiveness of new technology, more than a billion Apple iPhones have been bought since it was launched in 2007.
Clearly, the above illustrations share one overarching characteristic – exponential growth!
Why is this speed and pervasiveness happening now?
“There were 5 exabytes of information created between the dawn of civilization and 2003, but that much information is now created every two days.”
Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google
Equally as important, the Internet enables the sharing of that information, and the importance of that sharing can be illustrated by the following:
Five individuals walk into a room and exchange $5 bills. The five individuals subsequently leave that room, each with one $5 bill.
In contrast . . .
Five individuals walk into a room and exchange ideas. The five individuals subsequently leave that room, each with five ideas!
The following article articulates the opportunity for all investors:
“While the disruption is immense, so is the opportunity. The value of digital economy continues to grow in size and importance in every company in every industry. Nearly 3 billion consumers, businesses, government agencies, and institutions of every nature interact every day using computers, laptops, tablets, smartphones, and a growing range of mobile devices. The relentless speed of change of customers, markets, and technology has given rise to enormous opportunity.”
The obvious challenge for all individual investors is learning how to discover stocks that will enable them to benefit from this “enormous opportunity”.
How do we help investors to discover stocks with exponential growth potential?
First, every day we scan the trading activity for more than 8,000 stocks. Our proprietary filters identify stocks with extraordinary percentage increases in both price and volume. Those extraordinary percentage gains obviously reflect aggressive buying by investors.
The virtue of this screening process can be expressed in the following quote from Warren Buffet:
“Writing a check separates commitment from conversation.”
Our Silicon Investor blog, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, CNBC, Fox Financeand a host of other media sources can provide investors with an abundance of conversation.
Our daily price/volume screens provide us with empirical data about which stocks are being bought by investors (typically savvy institutions) making a commitment.
The conversations help investors to look around the corner and to focus their attention on which industries and companies offer the greatest potential for exponential growth and, therefore, for future wealth-building opportunities.
Second, whenever a stock fits both the conversation and commitment characteristics – and our research suggests that the company appears to have exponential growth potential – we issue a UVM Pick Report for that company. These reports contain research references that support our UVM Pick selection. The UVM Pick Reports are emailed to all UVM Members on the day of discovery.
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